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The Alpha Exchange
≈ weekly
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Dean Curnutt on volatility, derivatives, and risk.

In the last 30 days, The Alpha Exchange produced 42 attributed ideas; most-discussed: SPY, NVDA, GOOGL.

0
Ideas · 7d
42
Ideas · 30d
424
Ideas · all time
55
Episodes
Names this show discusses most
30D
SPY · 2NVDA · 1GOOGL · 1ORCL · 1HYG · 1
90D
SPY · 3NVDA · 1GOOGL · 1ORCL · 1HYG · 1TLT · 1

Theses first heard here · 21

AI as a hospitality amplifier, not a replacementFIRST HEARD 16 MAR
Private credit via diversified ETF structureFIRST HEARD 9 MAR
Compounding's power requires early, consistent investmentFIRST HEARD 9 MAR
Scarcity and margin of safety as resilience strategyFIRST HEARD 19 FEB
Gold as China's consumer wealth transition toolFIRST HEARD 4 FEB · GLD
Latest attributed ideas · most recent first
9 OCT1W AGOChris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management
Investment philosophy: raw ROA, asset selection, convexity
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9 OCT1W AGOChris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management
Post-GFC housing credit as a large, mispriced opportunity
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9 OCT1W AGOChris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management
AI build-out's circular credit risk
SHOWS SPLIT34 SHOWS · NOT ALL ON THE SAME SIDENVDAOpen in Zortix →
9 OCT1W AGOChris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management
Second-mover advantage in late cycle
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9 OCT1W AGOChris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management
High cash flow yield as dry powder
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9 OCT1W AGOChris Hentemann, Founder and CIO, 400 Capital Management
Competing on balance sheet is a dangerous proposition
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
Equities driven by passive flows, not value
SPYOpen in Zortix →
6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
Long-end yield rise as a fiscal trust problem
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
MOVE index at 100 is historically normal
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
The Fed is trapped by housing and debt costs
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
Risk-off event would bull steepen curve
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
Fed forward guidance creates moral hazard
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
TIPS real yields cheap if CPI is accurate
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
Fed rate hikes may not slow economy
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6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
S&P puts cheapened by forward curve
SPYOpen in Zortix →
6 OCT2W AGOHarley Bassman, The Convexity Maven
Stocks as an inflation hedge for currency distrust
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Current inflation driven by wealth, not wages
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
AI CapEx boom crowding out other corporate borrowers
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
TIPS attractive on high real yields, low inflation premia
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Opportunity in countries with high pass-through rates
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Negative real rates fueled financialization, not growth
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Long-end yields structurally higher on debt and growth
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Global tightening, oil shock threaten growth
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Structural bull case for EM local currency bonds
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
UK bond market more constructive post-pension reform
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Long-term forward yields look too high
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
Baby boomer stock wealth fuels services spending
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
QE can be reflationary, raising bond yields
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1 OCT3W AGOBrij Khurana, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, Wellington
China in a balance sheet recession
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23 SEP4W AGOAmanda Lynam, Chief Credit Strategist in Global Investment Research, Goldman Sachs
$6 trillion hyperscaler CapEx through 2030
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IDEAS & DEPTH REFLECT PODCAST DISCUSSION · NOT A RATING, FORECAST, OR RECOMMENDATION